School of Public Health, University of California,
Berkeley
E-mail:
jchin@socrates.berkeley.edu
CCIH, May 2003
As a staff member of
the Global Programme on AIDS (GPA) of the World Health Organization (WHO) in
Geneva from the beginning of GPA in 1987 until my resignation from WHO in
1992, I was responsible for surveillance, forecasting and impact assessment
of the HIV/AIDS pandemic.My
responsibilities included developing methods for the surveillance of HIV/AIDS
and for the estimation and projection of HIV prevalence.In addition, I was asked to brief all new
GPA staff (HQ and field) on the current status of the pandemic.I found that most of the staff who were
joining GPA in the late 1980s did not have a good understanding (as it was
understood at that time) of the estimated HIV/AIDS numbers and the basic
epidemiology of HIV.I have found that
this general situation continues for many if not most AIDS workers, AIDS
advocates and AIDS activists.
This presentation
was prepared to provide persons who are interested in or working in HIV/AIDS
programs with an objective review of the current estimates of HIV/AIDS and
with my understanding of the basic epidemiology and the transmission dynamics
of HIV infections.